EQUITIES▸SEASONALITY
US OPEN
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EQUITIES ▸◈S&P 500⇅MOVERS▣MASSIVE⊡ALPHA◔SEASONALITY
◔ SEASONALITY ENGINEREGIME MIXER3 YEARS☆SPX0 LIVE / 3 SYNTHETIC
ASSET:
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Mix and match historical market data by president, election cycle, macro theme, or custom year selection. Build composite performance curves from the exact conditions that match today's environment.
PRESIDENTIAL TERMS
BidenD2021–2024
Trump (1st)R2017–2020
Obama (2nd)D2013–2016
Obama (1st)D2009–2012
Bush (2nd)R2005–2008
Bush (1st)R2001–2004
Clinton (2nd)D1997–2000
Clinton (1st)D1993–1996
Bush SrR1989–1992
Reagan (2nd)R1985–1988
Reagan (1st)R1981–1984
ELECTION CYCLE
Election Year
Y4 of presidential cycle
Midterm Year
Y2 — historically volatile
Pre-Election Year
Y3 — historically strongest
Post-Election Year
Y1 — new admin settling in
MARKET THEMES
CUSTOM YEARS
💾 SAVED PRESETS
COMPOSITE YTD PERFORMANCE — 3 YEARS
-11%6%24%41%59%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
COMPOSITE AVG
2016
2020
2024
YEAR-BY-YEAR RETURNS
YEARBARRETURNMAX DD
2016
+10.2%-3.7%
2020
+7.3%-13.4%
2024
+50.8%-7.8%
AVG3 years composited22.8%-8.3%
MONTHLY RETURNS HEATMAP— approx. 21 trading days per month
YEARJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFULL YR
2016 *+1.8+0.8+0.6+1.4+0.5+1.0-0.2+0.5+0.4+0.7+4.5-1.7+10.2%
2020 *+1.1+3.8-2.9+0.8-3.7+1.4-1.7-0.2+2.4-0.8+1.9+5.2+7.3%
2024 *+3.3-2.7+3.4-0.0+1.9+8.1+7.2+2.7+17.5+4.2+4.0+1.3+50.8%
AVG+2.0+0.6+0.4+0.7-0.4+3.5+1.8+1.0+6.8+1.4+3.5+1.622.8%
* = synthetic approximation · Live data from Polygon / Alpha Vantage when available
📊 HOW TO USE THIS
1. Start broad: Select a presidential term or election cycle to see the baseline pattern.
2. Add themes: Layer in rate hike/cut cycles, inflation, QE — whatever matches current conditions.
3. Remove outliers: Deselect years that don't fit (e.g., 2020 pandemic if you're not in a crisis).
4. Read the composite: The gold line is your weighted expectation — where do seasonal tailwinds and headwinds cluster?
5. Save your setup: Name and save presets so you can instantly reload your custom regime mix.
6. Cross-reference: Compare seasonal expectation against live options data, foot traffic, and prediction markets for convergence.
# SEASONALITY ENGINE · Moneda Research & Zero Ai Labs — Historical regime analysis. Mix. Match. Find the pattern.