POLLING
15:00
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โ SEASONALITY ENGINEREGIME MIXER3 YEARSSPX0 LIVE / 3 SYNTHETIC
ASSET:
Mix and match historical market data by president, election cycle, macro theme, or custom year selection. Build composite performance curves from the exact conditions that match today's environment.
PRESIDENTIAL TERMS
BidenD2021โ2024
Trump (1st)R2017โ2020
Obama (2nd)D2013โ2016
Obama (1st)D2009โ2012
Bush (2nd)R2005โ2008
Bush (1st)R2001โ2004
Clinton (2nd)D1997โ2000
Clinton (1st)D1993โ1996
Bush SrR1989โ1992
Reagan (2nd)R1985โ1988
Reagan (1st)R1981โ1984
ELECTION CYCLE
Election Year
Y4 of presidential cycle
Midterm Year
Y2 โ historically volatile
Pre-Election Year
Y3 โ historically strongest
Post-Election Year
Y1 โ new admin settling in
MARKET THEMES
CUSTOM YEARS
๐พ SAVED PRESETS
COMPOSITE YTD PERFORMANCE โ 3 YEARS
COMPOSITE AVG
2016
2020
2024
๐ HOW TO USE THIS
1. Start broad: Select a presidential term or election cycle to see the baseline pattern.
2. Add themes: Layer in rate hike/cut cycles, inflation, QE โ whatever matches current conditions.
3. Remove outliers: Deselect years that don't fit (e.g., 2020 pandemic if you're not in a crisis).
4. Read the composite: The gold line is your weighted expectation โ where do seasonal tailwinds and headwinds cluster?
5. Save your setup: Name and save presets so you can instantly reload your custom regime mix.
6. Cross-reference: Compare seasonal expectation against live options data, foot traffic, and prediction markets for convergence.
2. Add themes: Layer in rate hike/cut cycles, inflation, QE โ whatever matches current conditions.
3. Remove outliers: Deselect years that don't fit (e.g., 2020 pandemic if you're not in a crisis).
4. Read the composite: The gold line is your weighted expectation โ where do seasonal tailwinds and headwinds cluster?
5. Save your setup: Name and save presets so you can instantly reload your custom regime mix.
6. Cross-reference: Compare seasonal expectation against live options data, foot traffic, and prediction markets for convergence.
# SEASONALITY ENGINE ยท Moneda Research & Zero Ai Labs โ Historical regime analysis. Mix. Match. Find the pattern.